生物燃料系统分析模型

Model-based biofuels system analysis: a review

摘要:

定量化系统分析模型是生物燃料潜力预测、影响分析及制定技术路线图和政策目标的重要工具。生物燃料供应链涉及很多行业，需要进行基于农 (林) 业、能源、经济和环境等多学科领域的综合分析。以下从生物燃料系统分析所需解决的问题出发，梳理了国内外生物燃料系统分析的一般方法，重点对农 (林) 业系统模型、能源系统模型、综合评价模型、微观成本、能耗和排放分析模型以及生物燃料专项宏观分析模型的主要优缺点和适用性进行了分析，给出了相应的应用实例，并强调根据特定的研究问题，选择具有不同适用性的模型和研究路线。有助于研究人员和政策制定者更好地了解生物燃料系统分析方法，也为我国学术研究机构建立生物燃料分析模型提供了参考。

Abstract:

Model-based system analysis is an important tool for evaluating the potential and impacts of biofuels, and for drafting biofuels technology roadmaps and targets. The broad reach of the biofuels supply chain requires that biofuels system analyses span a range of disciplines, including agriculture/forestry, energy, economics, and the environment. Here we reviewed various models developed for or applied to modeling biofuels, and presented a critical analysis of Agriculture/Forestry System Models, Energy System Models, Integrated Assessment Models, Micro-level Cost, Energy and Emission Calculation Models, and Specific Macro-level Biofuel Models. We focused on the models’ strengths, weaknesses, and applicability, facilitating the selection of a suitable type of model for specific issues. Such an analysis was a prerequisite for future biofuels system modeling, and represented a valuable resource for researchers and policy makers.