副溶血性弧菌温度-盐度双因素预测模型的建立

Development of Predictive Model for Combined Effect of Temperature and Salinity on the Growth of Vibrio parahaemolyticus

摘要:

本文以副溶血性弧菌VP BJ1.1997为研究对象, 采用均匀设计试验方法, 建立并验证了温度范围为7°C~43°C, 盐度范围为0.5%~9.5%NaCl的生长动力学模型。结果表明, 所选一级模型的拟合效果优劣依次为Logistic方程>Gompertz方程>Linear方程, 以Logistic方程为一级模型计算生长参数; 二级模型采用平方根模型进行拟合, 得到模型相关系数r为0.9863, 最低生长温度T min为9.0506°C, 最高生长盐度为5.93%NaCl(对应最低生长水分活度Aw min

Abstract:

Based on the standard strain-Vibrio parahaemolyticus BJ1.1997, temperature (7°C~43°C) and salinity (0.5%~9.5% NaCl) which affected its growth status was studied with uniform design. The results showed that Logistic equation is optimal in primary models, the second is Gompertz equation, the last is Linear equation, so growth parameters can calculated from Logistic equation. The secondary model was developed by square root models, its r value was 0.9863, the lowest growth temperature was 9.0506°C and the highest growth salinity was 5.93% [the corresponding lowest growth water activity (Aw min) was 0.9227]. Through F test, residual analysis and evaluation by bias factor and accuracy factor, the model can exactly describe the relationship between the growth rate and combined effect of temperature and salinity (water activity).